💡 In simple words: This page shows different stories of how big WikiDeal could become.

⚠️ Not yet approved. This page describes a proposal that is still under community review. It is documented here so it can be discussed, improved and endorsed.

Growth Scenarios & Sustainability Projections

⚠️ No Guarantee

These projections are educational and illustrative only. They show how WikiDeal could reach sustainability under various growth assumptions, not how it will. Actual user adoption may be faster, slower, or follow a completely different curve. These scenarios are included in WikiDeal's subscription agreement as annexes for full transparency. Use the interactive simulator below to explore different assumptions.

Two Baseline Scenarios

WikiDeal's path to sustainability depends primarily on how fast we acquire users. Below are two baseline scenarios; you can adjust them with the simulator.

Conservative (×10/year)

Y1: 10K users
Y2: 100K users
Y3: 1M users
Y4: 10M users
Y5: 100M users

Break-even early Y4–Y5

Aggressive (×25/year, slower start)

Y1: 1K users
Y2: 25K users
Y3: 625K users
Y4: 15.6M users
Y5: 390M users

Break-even late Y3–early Y4

Key assumption: Each scenario shows how the same amount (CHF 500M cumulative subscription revenue) can be reached through different adoption curves. The faster you acquire users early, the slower the multiplier needs to be.

Interactive Simulator

Adjust the slider below to explore different growth multipliers and see how they affect the timeline to break-even:

Annual Growth Multiplier 10x

Slider snaps to: 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 50

Starting Year 1 Users 10,000

Adjust starting point (affects Y1–Y5 progression)

Calculate Scenario

Year 1 Users: —

Year 2 Users: —

Year 3 Users: —

Year 4 Users: —

Year 5 Users: —

Break-Even (CHF 500M revenue): —

Historical Precedent: Wikipedia

WikiDeal is inspired by Wikimedia's growth trajectory:

Year 1: 18,000 articles (English Wikipedia)
Year 2: Multiple languages launched, multiple communities formed
Year 5: Millions of articles across dozens of languages
Today: >60 million articles, billions of readers

Exponential growth in volunteer-driven projects is possible when the product is compelling and the community believes in the mission. WikiDeal could follow a similar trajectory—or a very different one.

What Could Change These Projections?

Factors that could accelerate growth:

Major marketplace success (e.g., babysitting pilot proves the model)
Press coverage and network effects
Geographic expansion (regional User Groups driving adoption)
Integration with existing platforms (APIs, partnerships)

Factors that could slow growth:

Regulatory challenges
Competition from centralized alternatives
Lower-than-expected marketplace revenue
Slower onboarding of early adopters

All of these are real risks. The projections above assume none of them happen—or that they're balanced by positive surprises. In reality, your experience will likely differ.

Why We Share These Numbers

WikiDeal's founding principle is radical transparency. We believe early adopters deserve to understand:

How their subscription money is distributed
How fast the ecosystem needs to grow to be sustainable
What success looks like in years 1–5
The real risks and uncertainties

These projections aren't promises—they're invitations to understand the bet you're making when you support WikiDeal.