https://wikideal.net/w/index.php?action=history&feed=atom&title=Gov%2Fen%2FPortal%3ATransparency%2FGrowth-ScenariosGov/en/Portal:Transparency/Growth-Scenarios - Revision history2026-06-15T01:08:39ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.43.0https://wikideal.net/w/index.php?title=Gov/en/Portal:Transparency/Growth-Scenarios&diff=823&oldid=prevAI-Admin-Assistant: Migrate EN content + KidsIntro + NotApproved (Lot 5, Theo 2026-06-13)2026-06-13T20:50:43Z<p>Migrate EN content + KidsIntro + NotApproved (Lot 5, Theo 2026-06-13)</p>
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= Growth Scenarios & Sustainability Projections =<br />
=== ⚠️ No Guarantee ===<br />
'''These projections are educational and illustrative only.''' They show '''how WikiDeal could''' reach sustainability under various growth assumptions, '''not how it will.''' Actual user adoption may be faster, slower, or follow a completely different curve. These scenarios are included in WikiDeal's subscription agreement as annexes for full transparency. Use the interactive simulator below to explore different assumptions.<br />
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== Two Baseline Scenarios ==<br />
WikiDeal's path to sustainability depends primarily on '''how fast we acquire users.''' Below are two baseline scenarios; you can adjust them with the simulator.<br />
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==== Conservative (×10/year) ====<br />
* '''Y1:''' 10K users<br />
* '''Y2:''' 100K users<br />
* '''Y3:''' 1M users<br />
* '''Y4:''' 10M users<br />
* '''Y5:''' 100M users<br />
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''Break-even early Y4–Y5''<br />
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==== Aggressive (×25/year, slower start) ====<br />
* '''Y1:''' 1K users<br />
* '''Y2:''' 25K users<br />
* '''Y3:''' 625K users<br />
* '''Y4:''' 15.6M users<br />
* '''Y5:''' 390M users<br />
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''Break-even late Y3–early Y4''<br />
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'''Key assumption:''' Each scenario shows how the same amount (CHF 500M cumulative subscription revenue) can be reached through different adoption curves. The faster you acquire users early, the slower the multiplier needs to be.<br />
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== Interactive Simulator ==<br />
Adjust the slider below to explore different growth multipliers and see how they affect the timeline to break-even:<br />
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Annual Growth Multiplier 10x<br />
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Slider snaps to: 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 50<br />
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Starting Year 1 Users 10,000<br />
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Adjust starting point (affects Y1–Y5 progression)<br />
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Calculate Scenario<br />
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Year 1 Users: —<br />
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Year 2 Users: —<br />
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Year 3 Users: —<br />
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Year 4 Users: —<br />
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Year 5 Users: —<br />
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Break-Even (CHF 500M revenue): —<br />
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== Historical Precedent: Wikipedia ==<br />
WikiDeal is inspired by Wikimedia's growth trajectory:<br />
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* '''Year 1:''' 18,000 articles (English Wikipedia)<br />
* '''Year 2:''' Multiple languages launched, multiple communities formed<br />
* '''Year 5:''' Millions of articles across dozens of languages<br />
* '''Today:''' >60 million articles, billions of readers<br />
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Exponential growth in volunteer-driven projects is possible when the product is compelling and the community believes in the mission. WikiDeal could follow a similar trajectory—or a very different one.<br />
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== What Could Change These Projections? ==<br />
'''Factors that could accelerate growth:'''<br />
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* Major marketplace success (e.g., babysitting pilot proves the model)<br />
* Press coverage and network effects<br />
* Geographic expansion (regional User Groups driving adoption)<br />
* Integration with existing platforms (APIs, partnerships)<br />
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'''Factors that could slow growth:'''<br />
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* Regulatory challenges<br />
* Competition from centralized alternatives<br />
* Lower-than-expected marketplace revenue<br />
* Slower onboarding of early adopters<br />
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'''All of these are real risks. The projections above assume none of them happen—or that they're balanced by positive surprises.''' In reality, your experience will likely differ.<br />
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== Why We Share These Numbers ==<br />
WikiDeal's founding principle is '''radical transparency.''' We believe early adopters deserve to understand:<br />
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* How their subscription money is distributed<br />
* How fast the ecosystem needs to grow to be sustainable<br />
* What success looks like in years 1–5<br />
* The real risks and uncertainties<br />
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These projections aren't promises—they're invitations to understand the bet you're making when you support WikiDeal.<br />
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